Hazards SEES Type 2: Dynamic Integration of Natural, Human, and Infrastructure Systems for Hurricane Evacuation and Sheltering

该项目将通过动态建模方法提高对飓风疏散和庇护的理解和决策支持。这种危险将用一组描述飓风可能演变方式的概率情景来表示。对于每个飓风场景，风暴潮、风速和降雨洪水地图将为每个时间步骤开发。研究小组还将模拟随着可用信息的变化，应急管理人员和居民的动态决策，以及居民在事件过程中的动态移动。叠加这些模型的结果将有助于通过空间和时间理解系统内部和系统之间的相互作用。该项目有四个主要组成部分。首先，一个综合的气象、水文和风暴潮建模系统将被实施，以确定一组近海飓风的概率集合情景。其次，建立居民和应急管理人员时间决策的理论模型。第三，将制定一个多阶段随机方案，整合前两个步骤的产出，以支持应急管理人员的飓风疏散和庇护决策，从而最大限度地减少个人风险和旅行时间。第四，将通过北卡罗来纳州的案例研究应用来展示相互关联的危害、行为和疏散/避难所模型。这个项目将具有广泛的意义，因为它将在理解和改进飓风事件疏散和庇护管理方面取得重大飞跃。风、风暴潮、海浪、降雨和径流，所有这些都会对疏散产生重大影响，本项目将同时综合考虑。该项目还将促进对官员和居民如何在一段时间内做出决策，以及他们的决策所依据的信息如何随时间变化的理解。它将明确表明这样一个事实，即应急管理人员在飓风还离海岸很远、存在很大的不确定性时做出初步决定，然后在一两天后做出后续决定，对风暴的可能影响了解得更多。总的来说，这个项目的框架将首次完全捕捉到飓风事件的三个特征，这些特征对于理解疏散和庇护可能是最重要的；这些特征是：(1)事件在空间和时间上是动态的；(2)涉及很大的不确定性；(3)包括自然、基础设施和人类系统内部和之间的许多相互作用。教育视频游戏和K-8教育外展将向参与者传授飓风疏散和避难所的动态和不确定性。博士后研究人员、研究生和本科生研究助理，包括妇女和代表性不足的少数民族参与项目的各个方面，将有助于培养下一代灾害专业人员。在整个项目中，与联邦和州机构的合作将有助于确保研究结果考虑到从业者的观点，并尽可能快速有效地融入实践。

This project will improve understanding of and decision support for hurricane evacuation and sheltering through a dynamic modeling approach. The hazard will be represented using a set of probabilistic scenarios that describe the range of ways a hurricane may evolve. For each hurricane scenario, storm surge, wind speed, and rainfall flooding maps will be developed for each time step. The research team will also model the dynamic decision-making of emergency managers and residents as the available information changes, and the dynamic movement of residents over the course of the event. Overlaying the results of these models will help to understand the interactions within and among the systems through space and time. The project has four main components. First, an integrated meteorological, hydrological, and storm surge modeling system that will be implemented to determine a set of probabilistic ensemble scenarios for an offshore hurricane. Second, theoretical models of resident and emergency manager temporal decision-making will be developed. Third, a multi-stage stochastic program will be developed that integrates the outputs from the first two steps to support emergency managers' hurricane evacuation and sheltering decisions so as to minimize personal risk and travel time. Fourth, the interconnected hazard, behavioral, and evacuation/shelter models will be demonstrated through case study applications in North Carolina. This project will have broad significance because it will result in a major leap forward in understanding and improving management of evacuation and sheltering for hurricane events. Wind, storm surge, waves, rainfall, and runoff, all of which can substantially affect evacuations, will be considered simultaneously and comprehensively in this project. The project will also advance understanding of how officials and residents make decisions over time, and how the information on which their decisions change over time. It will explicitly represent the fact that emergency managers make initial decisions while a hurricane is still far offshore and large uncertainty remains, and then make subsequent decisions after a day or two has passed and more is known about the likely effects of the storm. Overall, the framework for this project will, for the first time, fully capture the three features of hurricane events that are perhaps most important for understanding evacuation and sheltering; these features are: (1)the events are dynamic over space and time, (2) involve great uncertainty, and (3) include many interactions within and among the natural, infrastructure, and human systems.The educational video game and K-8 educational outreach will teach participants about the dynamics and uncertainty in hurricane evacuation and sheltering. Post-doctoral researchers, graduate and undergraduate research assistants including women and underrepresented minorities' participation in all aspects of the project will help train the next generation of disaster professionals. Collaboration with federal and state agencies throughout the project will help ensure the findings consider practitioner's perspectives and are integrated into practice as quickly and effectively as possible.